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Abstract Socioeconomic disparities in academic progress have persisted throughout the history of the United States, and growth mindset interventions—which shift beliefs about the malleability of intelligence—have shown promise in reducing these disparities. Both the study of such disparities and how to remedy them can benefit from taking the “long view” on adolescent development, following the tradition of John Schulenberg. To do so, this study focuses on the role of growth mindsets in short‐term academic progress during the transition to high school as a contributor to longer‐term educational attainment. Guided by the Mindset × Context perspective, we analyzed new follow‐up data to a one‐year nationally representative study of ninth graders (National Study of Learning Mindsets,n = 10,013; 50% female; 53% white; 63% from lower‐SES backgrounds). A conservative Bayesian analysis revealed that adolescents' growth mindset beliefs at the beginning of ninth grade predicted their enrollment in college 4 years later. These patterns were stronger for adolescents from lower‐SES backgrounds, and there was some evidence that the ninth‐grade math teacher's support for the growth mindset moderated student mindset effects. Thus, a time‐specific combination of student and teacher might alter long‐term trajectories by enabling adolescents to develop and use beliefs at a critical transition point that supports a cumulative pathway of course‐taking and achievement into college. Notably, growth mindset became less predictive of college enrollment after the onset of the COVID‐19 pandemic, which occurred in the second year of college and introduced structural barriers to college persistence. 

A growth-mindset intervention teaches the belief that intellectual abilities can be developed. Where does the intervention work best? Prior research examined school-level moderators using data from the National Study of Learning Mindsets (NSLM), which delivered a short growth-mindset intervention during the first year of high school. In the present research, we used data from the NSLM to examine moderation by teachers’ mindsets and answer a new question: Can students independently implement their growth mindsets in virtually any classroom culture, or must students’ growth mindsets be supported by their teacher’s own growth mindsets (i.e., the mindset-plus-supportive-context hypothesis)? The present analysis (9,167 student records matched with 223 math teachers) supported the latter hypothesis. This result stood up to potentially confounding teacher factors and to a conservative Bayesian analysis. Thus, sustaining growth-mindset effects may require contextual supports that allow the proffered beliefs to take root and flourish.